At LPL Research, our 2023 investing outlook started with a theme of returning to normalcy. Considering 2022’s market volatility and the aftereffects of the pandemic, the idea of finding balance was certainly a welcomed change. It’s a theme we could all embrace six months ago and what we will continue to rally around through year-end.
That’s not to say that 2023 hasn’t come with its own set of challenges. We saw two regional banks fail in rapid-fire succession in March—and another closed its doors in May. Collectively representing over $530 billion in assets, the trio ranks as the second, third, and fourth largest bank failures to date.
We also held our breath as a last-minute deal to raise the debt limit came together as the clock ticked closer to default. Despite the market gyrations these events caused and a banking sector still on tenterhooks, the overall financial system seems stable. Counterbalancing the challenges, some bright spots include:
- Inflation is under 5% at home, significantly lower than its 8.3% level this time last year
- The fed funds rate is approaching its apex as the Federal Reserve grapples with the unknown impacts yet to emerge from its aggressive tightening cycle
- Global inflation has ticked down from its 8.7% high in 2022, and is following a slow descent to a projected 6.5% for 2023
IMPORTANT DISCLOSURES This material is for general information only and is not intended to provide specific advice or recommendations for any individual. The economic forecasts may not develop as predicted. Please read the full MIDYEAR OUTLOOK 2023: The Path Toward Stability publication for additional description and disclosure. This research material has been prepared by LPL Financial LLC. Tracking # 1-05371105 (Exp. 06/24)